The Future of Transportation: Getting There
Undoubtedly there are successful rail systems in the world -- but nobody has ever built a successful suburban “commuter” rail system which is what this is -- the difference being that urban rail systems are overwhelmingly successful where population densities are 20,000-50,000 per square mile, achieved only in major metropolitan areas of over 10 million people.
So while New York, Tokyo, London, Paris, Bangkok, Mexico City do indeed have overwhelmingly successful rail systems, even there they have never designed nor run a commuter rail service as Honolulu is proposing to shuttle people from Kapolei to downtown Honolulu -- through areas where the population density is quite low.
Rail makes overwhelming sense when it is running through the most densely populated areas of a community -- rather than as a suburban commute -- which even in places like New Jersey, is done by bus rather than rail. Meanwhile, underground rail through Manhattan is the only thing that makes overwhelming sense. But Honolulu is obviously not those conditions.
What really ticked me off during the hearings for the rail, was that tremendous deceptions and fabrications were unloosed in the City Chambers -- such as that Honolulu was the fifth most densely populated city in the nation --even if it was true that they were planning to build it for the most densely populated areas rather than to serve a suburban commute of lower densities of largely single family dwellings.
It seems like the media (newspapers) were leading the way in these deceptions -- just as 25 years ago, Kapolei was supposed to be the answer to the traffic congestion problems, by being the Second City. So, many of us who are slightly more skeptical of hearing these promises of panaceas and world-class achievement, are more likely to look upon the proposed great rail system as the Hawaii Convention Center on wheels, rather than a real solution to anything.
If the facts were compelling, I’d be solidly in your camp, but I see no will to solve anything -- least of all the traffic situation with the promotion of current mass transit, car pooling, intelligent bike laws and enforcement, pedestrian amenities. The previous Administration took the advance money for a “bus rapid transit system” and once that money was gone, there is no evidence that that was once proposed as a solution other than the federal funding to manufacture jobs that the following Administration would largely undo.
I’m inclined to believe the era of mass systems is over -- just as with the personal computers -- and the future is with personal transport systems, the smaller the better, that really provide an unprecedented freedom of mobility, to go where people actually want to go, and not just to where the mass transit takes them.
That would seem to be the appropriate step beyond mass transportation systems -- individualized and personalized transporters. Honolulu seems to be on that scale of feasibility -- and by developing that next generation of transportation possibilities, legitimately makes us world class and the leader in innovation. Otherwise, we’re just hoping that by following what has been successful elsewhere, we can be successful too -- without regard for optimizing for our unique conditions.