Friday, July 28, 2006

Let’s Do the Math

I figure the first to reach 4,000 votes, wins the district outright, and if the Dems are discouraged by their non-existent prospects in the general election for the governorship, it might even be as little as 3,000. On my strategy to get one voter to get one other voter, that lowers the bar to 2,000 (1,500). Half of my precincts go Republican traditionally (Waikiki) and this year should be even more overwhelming as even those who say they are not supporting Linda Lingle as they did in 2002, when challenged if they would actually vote for the Democrat offering, said they would vote the Green Party.

The weakness of this district, as far as Republicans go, is the immediate, walkable area around me -- that if I can connect with, maintains the advantage the governor builds up in the high-rises. I think she is good for 66% (2-1), and beyond that, I just don’t think it makes a difference whether it is 75% (3-1), 80% (4-1), 90% (9-1). It just counts as one win. So I just hope she puts in a good word for me.

Then all I have to do is defend my own turf -- literally. Kapahulu is one of the oldest, most stable neighborhoods in the whole island -- so everybody knows everybody -- who actually lives here, and who does not but merely claims to. Even the Party props look strangely unfamiliar at the community functions. And what people are looking for, is how the politician relates not to the prospective voters, but to his own "friends."

That’s what I’ve tried to tell past candidates walking the neighborhood -- because unless they are already known and familiar, people look to the other as a testimony of one’s credibility. They don’t respond directly but indirectly. It’s kind of like an anthropological study -- to find the key people to interact with rather than each as the same as any other. In tribal societies and communities, everyone is not equal to everyone else.

There are respected elders -- who determine how most of their relatives and friends will be voting. Those people are not worth 2 but 4 -- at least.

That brings us down to about 1,000 solid contacts. And then when one makes that contact, one has to have the superior ability to relate to them -- with compelling campaign literature, shared recollections of everybody else in the history of Kapahulu, etc.

I like my chances.

3 Comments:

At July 29, 2006 8:50 AM, Blogger Mike Hu said...

Remember, if we double our votes daily, the series goes like this:

1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512.1024,2048,4096.

That's why getting one vote a day is all that matters. We still have over 100 days before the election.

 
At July 29, 2006 8:57 AM, Blogger Mike Hu said...

The old mass media model and approach is that we have to reach 10,000 -- hoping 1% will respond.

What is more effective is finding the 1 that is 100% moved by one's message to communicate to the one other who resonates with that message.

Then you really have something. The most successful of the prototype was the Jesus gang. They started out with ten.

 
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